Syria’s civil war, now in its seventh year, has killed more than 450,000 people, forced more than five million civilians to flee the country, and has internally displaced more than six million people. “The sectarian nature of the conflicts in Iraq and Syria, fuelled by the rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia, is strengthening the Sunni jihadist ideology,” he said. “The same ideology will inevitably emerge,” Strack told Al Jazeera. Similarly, Columb Strack, senior Middle East analyst at IHS Markit, believes ISIL is only one manifestation an ideology that has existed for “decades”. Yet, the caliphate structure that is now crumbling was “never a serious idea”, said Khouri – instead, it is the ideology that predates the group that may resurface. Rising out of the chaos in Iraq and into Syria, ISIL managed to establish its presence over drained, vulnerable, war-torn areas – paramount conditions through which armed groups gain further military power. ![]() When Baghdadi announced the dissolution of Jabhat al-Nusra and the integration of its members into ISIL, which stands for Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, Julani refused the order, creating a clear divide between the two groups after a series of defections.įrom Syria’s eastern province of Deir Az Zor to Iraq’s second largest city of Mosul, the self-declared caliphate managed over the past three years to create a de facto state with various municipal centres. OPINION: The crisis in Iraq – Was the rise of ISIL a surprise? In the ensuing years, they carried out several deadly attacks in Baghdad and its surroundings, targeting Western-allied tribal leaders and US military posts.Īnd in 2010, Baghdadi became ISI’s leader following the death of his predecessor.īy 2012, Baghdadi had mandated his affiliates to establish a branch in Syria’s northeast region amid a fractious civil war, where the branch was first known as Jabhat al-Nusra, led by Abu Mohammed Al Julani. In Mosul, they established military cells and made the city their operations hub. ISI was driven out of the capital, Baghdad, and into Iraq’s second largest city of Mosul, as well as Diyala and Al Anbar. Consequently, an estimated 400,000 people became marginalised in Iraqi society.īy placing Nouri al-Maliki as prime minister, a Shia politician who during his tenure targeted and marginalised Sunnis and Kurds, the US occupation led to a sectarian war, resulting in the displacement of more than one million Iraqis between 20. The Baath party had been in power for 40 years and, under the law, many Iraqis who were party affiliates lost their jobs. After deposing the late Iraqi president Saddam Hussein, the US ordered the dismantlement of Iraq’s army and banned the Sunni Baath Party from government under the de-Baathification law. The 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq had devastating effects on the social and economic fabrics of the country. The movement, led by key al-Qaeda figures in Iraq, played a large role in fuelling a sectarian war in the country. The self-declared caliphate is an offshoot of al-Qaeda in Iraq, which in 2006 became known as the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI). Khouri said that unless underlying regional issues such as unemployment, human rights abuses and political repression are addressed, the group’s ideology will continue to attract the disenfranchised and politically excluded. ![]() Though it is unclear how ISIL may re-establish itself, some believe that poor economic conditions and volatile war-torn areas are the basis for the emergence of such groups. ![]() “The rise of ISIS is a sign of deeper problems,” he said. “The structure of ISIS is destroyed, but the underlying forces are not – they are being worsened,” Rami Khouri, senior fellow and professor at the American University of Beirut, told Al Jazeera, using a different acronym for ISIL. Syrians’ suffering persists after returning to former ISIL-held town
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